Ian Tsung-yen Chen, a professor at the Institute of Political Science at Taiwan's National Sun Yat-sen University, told The Epoch Times that while these indicators point to a shrinking window of opportunity for Beijing, an immediate assault remains unlikely.
"The U.S. and the international community are growing more prepared to counter China's military threat against Taiwan, and Beijing may calculate its odds of prevailing are higher now than in the future," Chen said.
"But in reality, could China actually seize the island if a conflict breaks out soon? I don't believe they are certain of winning such a war."
In a similar vein, Chen said the United States is equipped to fight on multiple fronts, meaning the Middle East tensions will not create a defense vacuum around Taiwan.
"China cannot easily seize Taiwan just because the U.S. is preoccupied with another conflict," Chen said.
But Chen warned that under China's authoritarian system, leaders often receive filtered information, which increases the risk of miscalculation and makes a potential conflict harder to predict.
"Internal intelligence flowing up the chain of command shapes Xi's calculations, but those assessments are not always objective or accurate," Chen said.
"China could resort to force purely to serve political needs—regardless of its economic or military constraints—meaning Taiwan cannot let its guard down."