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期刊論文

European Participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Making Strategic Choice and Seeking Economic Opportunities

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中文摘要

本文探問，為何歐盟半數成員國在華府施加強大壓力下，仍選擇加入中國主導的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（AIIB）。如果亞投行對歐洲而言是難以忽視的經濟機會，為何其餘歐盟國家卻背對該組織？為解釋歐洲國家態度上的明顯差異，本文主張，在其他條件不變下，歐洲、美國與中國之間戰略情勢的變化，以及各國對發展中亞洲經濟機會的不同期待，導致歐洲國家走向不同方向。那些與中國日益友好、此一趨勢源自與美國之間同盟安全困境加劇，且高度依賴潛在龐大亞洲市場的國家，最可能追隨中國。相反地，未明顯轉向中國或亞洲的國家，最不可能加入亞投行。若僅具備其中一項因素，該國將維持猶豫。本文運用量化與質化分析檢驗此論點，包括針對31國的probit分析，以及德國、比利時與羅馬尼亞三個深入案例研究；這些國家分別具有高、中、低加入亞投行的可能性。兩類分析結果皆支持本文提出的分析框架。

Abstract

This paper asks why half of the members of the European Union (EU) have chosen to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in defiance of substantial pressure from Washington. If the AIIB is too good an economic opportunity for Europe to ignore, then why did the rest of the EU turn its back on this organization? To account for this apparent variation in the attitude of European countries, I argue that, ceteris paribus, changes in the strategic situation involving Europe, the USA, and China, as well as differing expectations of economic opportunities in a developing Asia, have led European countries in different directions. Those countries which are getting increasingly friendly with China, which results from increasing level of alliance security dilemma with the USA, and are highly dependent on the potentially gigantic Asian market are the most likely to follow China's lead. Countries that are not so geared toward China or Asia are least likely to join the AIIB. Where only one of these factors is present, the country will remain hesitant. I test this argument using both quantitative and qualitative analysis. This includes probit analysis for 31 countries and three in-depth case studies involving Germany, Belgium, and Romania. These countries have a high, median, and low chance of joining the bank, respectively. The findings of both types of analysis support the proposed analytical framework.

引用格式

Chen, I. T.-y. (2018). European participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Making strategic choice and seeking economic opportunities. Asia Europe Journal, 16(4), 297–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0498-x
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. "European Participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Making Strategic Choice and Seeking Economic Opportunities." Asia Europe Journal, vol. 16, no. 4, 2018, pp. 297–315, doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0498-x.
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. "European Participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Making Strategic Choice and Seeking Economic Opportunities." Asia Europe Journal 16, no. 4 (2018): 297–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0498-x
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen 2018, 'European participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Making strategic choice and seeking economic opportunities', Asia Europe Journal, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 297–315, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0498-x.
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. European participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Making strategic choice and seeking economic opportunities. Asia Europe Journal. 2018;16(4):297–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0498-x
@article{Chen2018Europeanparticipat,
  author = {Chen, Ian Tsung-yen},
  title = {European participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Making strategic choice and seeking economic opportunities},
  year = {2018},
  journal = {Asia Europe Journal},
  volume = {16},
  number = {4},
  pages = {297–315},
  doi = {10.1007/s10308-017-0498-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0498-x}
}