Trump's Actions Speak Louder than His Words: Reversal of Trump's China Policy After Assuming the Presidency

字級

中文摘要

本文探問，唐納・川普是否可能如其美國總統競選期間所釋放的訊號那樣，對中國採取強硬作為。根據本文提出的證據，我主張川普政府在掌權後基於兩個原因採取了較為溫和的路線。第一，川普過去嚴厲的修辭並非建立在事實之上；因此，沒有基礎可以支持對中國的圍堵戰略。第二，在經濟事務上與中國敵對可能為美國造成意料之外的後果，傷害美國國內經濟以及他贏得第二任期的機會。然而，在南海問題上，川普將持續採取較強硬立場，但會避免進一步升高情勢，因為在安全議題上退讓將象徵他的懦弱，並產生國內觀眾成本。因此，在川普之下，於東亞發動貿易戰、貨幣戰或軍事攤牌的可能性很低。

Abstract

This paper asks whether Donald Trump is likely to act tough on China as he signaled during his campaign for the U.S. presidency. According to evidence presented in this paper, I argue that the Trump administration has adopted a more moderate approach after assuming power for two reasons. First, Trump did not base his past harsh rhetoric on facts; therefore, there is no foundation to support a containment strategy against China. Second, antagonizing China in economic affairs may create unintended consequences for the U.S., which may harm the U.S. domestic economy and his odds of winning a second term. In the South China Sea, however, Trump will continue with a tougher stance, but refrain from further escalation because backing down on security issues will signify his cowardice, which will generate domestic audience costs. As a result, the likelihood of starting a trade war, currency war, or military showdown in East Asia under Trump is low.

引用格式

Chen, I. T.-y. (2017). Trump's actions speak louder than his words: Reversal of Trump's China policy after assuming the presidency. Prospect Journal, 17, 25-58. http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh?docid=a0000538-201704-201707190015-201707190015-25-58

Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. "Trump's Actions Speak Louder than His Words: Reversal of Trump's China Policy After Assuming the Presidency." Prospect Journal, vol. 17, 2017, pp. 25-58, www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh?docid=a0000538-201704-201707190015-201707190015-25-58.

Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. "Trump's Actions Speak Louder than His Words: Reversal of Trump's China Policy After Assuming the Presidency." Prospect Journal 17 (2017): 25-58. http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh?docid=a0000538-201704-201707190015-201707190015-25-58

Chen, Ian Tsung-yen 2017, 'Trump's actions speak louder than his words: Reversal of Trump's China policy after assuming the presidency', Prospect Journal, vol. 17, pp. 25-58, http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh?docid=a0000538-201704-201707190015-201707190015-25-58.

Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. Trump's actions speak louder than his words: Reversal of Trump's China policy after assuming the presidency. Prospect Journal. 2017;17:25-58. http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh?docid=a0000538-201704-201707190015-201707190015-25-58

@article{Chen2017Trumpsactionsspeak,
  author = {Chen, Ian Tsung-yen},
  title = {Trump's actions speak louder than his words: Reversal of Trump's China policy after assuming the presidency},
  year = {2017},
  journal = {Prospect Journal},
  volume = {17},
  pages = {25-58},
  url = {http://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/alDetailedMesh?docid=a0000538-201704-201707190015-201707190015-25-58}
}