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China's Economic Offensive and Its Discontent in Southeast Asia: Diminishing Footprints in Myanmar

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中文摘要

雖然經濟實力崛起的中國使許多開發中國家受益,但也有許多人擔憂中國在區域與全球影響力的急速上升,尤其是在東南亞。中國確實快速崛起,但其究竟能多成功地將上升中的權力轉化為實際政治影響力,仍是一個問題。本文透過中緬關係這一關鍵案例回答此問題。由於緬甸高度依賴中國,它是最可能受到中國強烈影響的國家之一;然而,若緬甸在這種不對稱關係下仍未充分配合中國,則中國的實際影響力可能被高估。本文運用經濟影響力綜合指數(CIEI)說明緬甸在經濟相互依賴上最依賴哪個國家。CIEI顯示,緬甸對中國的依賴程度最高,且短期內不易被取代。然而,在如此高度相互依賴的關係下,證據顯示自2011年緬甸展開政治改革以來,其行為在若干議題上已開始偏離中國立場,包括人權與無核世界。此外,中國的影響力並未受到地方社群良好接受,許多地方居民將中國支持的計畫視為剝削性的經濟冒進。本文透過分析中國在密松水壩與萊比塘銅礦的投資,探討此類反對的成因。研究結果顯示,中國的軟足跡並未如外界想像般強大或受歡迎;由相互依賴關係產生的權力,仍需政治與社會凝聚力才能真正發揮作用。

Abstract

Although the rise of an economically powerful China benefits many developing countries, many worry about China's surging regional and global influences, especially in Southeast Asia. It is true that China has risen fast, but how successfully it has translated its rising power into actual political influence remains a question. In this study I answer this question by examining a crucial case of the Sino-Myanmar relationship. Because Myanmar relies heavily on China, it is one of the most likely countries to be heavily influenced by China. If, however, Myanmar has been less cooperative under such an imbalanced relationship, then China's actual influence may be exaggerated. I use the Composite Index of Economic Influence (CIEI) to show which country Myanmar depends on the most in terms of economic interdependence. The CIEI indicates that Myanmar relies on China the most and cannot be easily replaced in the short term . Given such a high interdependent relationship, however, evidence shows that since Myanmar started political reform in 2011, its behavior has begun to deviate from China's positions on the issues of human rights and a nuclear-free world . Furthermore China's influence has not been well received by the local communities who view Chinese-supported projects as exploitative economic adventurism. This study explores the causes of this opposition in an analysis of China's investments in the Myitsone Dam and Letpadaung copper mine projects. Results suggest that China's soft footprints do not appear as strong and welcome as perceived. The power from interdependent relationship requires political and social cohesion to take hold.

引用格式

Chen, I. T.-y. (2019). China's Economic Offensive and Its Discontent in Southeast Asia: Diminishing Footprints in Myanmar. In Diokno, M. S. I., & Hsiao, H.-H. M. (Eds.), China's Footprints in Southeast Asia (pp. 63-89). Singapore: National University of Singapore Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv9hj8v9
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. "China's Economic Offensive and Its Discontent in Southeast Asia: Diminishing Footprints in Myanmar." China's Footprints in Southeast Asia, edited by Maria Serena I. Diokno and Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, National University of Singapore Press, 2019, pp. 63-89, doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv9hj8v9.
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. "China's Economic Offensive and Its Discontent in Southeast Asia: Diminishing Footprints in Myanmar." In China's Footprints in Southeast Asia, edited by Maria Serena I. Diokno and Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, 63-89. Singapore: National University of Singapore Press, 2019. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv9hj8v9
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen 2019, 'China's Economic Offensive and Its Discontent in Southeast Asia: Diminishing Footprints in Myanmar', in Maria Serena I. Diokno and Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, eds., China's Footprints in Southeast Asia, National University of Singapore Press, pp. 63-89, https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv9hj8v9.
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. China's Economic Offensive and Its Discontent in Southeast Asia: Diminishing Footprints in Myanmar. In: Maria Serena I. Diokno and Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, editors. China's Footprints in Southeast Asia. Singapore: National University of Singapore Press. 2019. p. 63-89. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv9hj8v9
@incollection{Chen2019ChinasEconomicOffe,
  author = {Chen, Ian Tsung-yen},
  title = {China's Economic Offensive and Its Discontent in Southeast Asia: Diminishing Footprints in Myanmar},
  year = {2019},
  booktitle = {China's Footprints in Southeast Asia},
  editor = {Maria Serena I. Diokno and Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao},
  publisher = {National University of Singapore Press},
  address = {Singapore},
  pages = {63-89},
  doi = {10.2307/j.ctv9hj8v9},
  url = {https://nuspress.nus.edu.sg/collections/frontpage/products/chinas-footprints-in-southeast-asia?fbclid=IwAR11EJZGzoWCpmYAfRA9Ec0nH8BJPj83gJK6-K_wDPxvkEBnf_JYd9iAJaM}
}