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期刊論文

The Taiwan Strait: The Flashpoint of War Between China and US-Led Alliance

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中文摘要

台灣海峽已成為當代大國競爭中的核心熱點。本研究透過分析體系層次結構變遷與單元層次國內力量之間的互動，檢視中國在台灣附近軍事侵擾升高的驅動因素。在體系層次上，中國的強勢作為反映其與美國之間權力差距縮小，以及其挑戰美國影響力的努力，尤其是在裴洛西 2022 年訪台與賴清德 2024 年總統就職等觸發事件期間。在單元層次上，習近平之下決策的集中化、民族主義上升與經濟壓力，創造了尋求風險行為的誘因，並強化了對台灣的脅迫政策。研究發現指出，中國的軍事騷擾會隨著結構性競爭與國內壓力而波動，在政治敏感時刻加劇，並使灰色地帶戰術固著為其策略的常規特徵。雖然這些動態尚未匯聚成一個關鍵戰爭窗口，但脅迫措施的累積與反覆出現的危機，已使大國戰爭風險維持在高位，並使兩岸關係的走向日益不確定。

Abstract

The Taiwan Strait has become a central flashpoints in contemporary great-power competition. This study examines the drivers of China's escalating military incursions near Taiwan by analyzing the interaction of system-level structural shifts and unit-level domestic forces. At the system level, China's assertiveness reflects its narrowing power gap with the United States and its efforts to contest U.S. influence, particularly during triggering events such as Pelosi's 2022 Taiwan visit and Lai Ching-te's 2024 presidential inauguration. At the unit level, the centralization of decision-making under Xi Jinping, rising nationalism, and economic pressures create incentives for risk-seeking behavior, reinforcing coercive policies toward Taiwan. The findings indicate that China's military harassment fluctuates with both structural competition and domestic pressures, intensifying during politically sensitive moments and entrenching gray-zone tactics as a routine feature of its strategy. Although these dynamics have not yet converged into a critical war window, the accumulation of coercive measures and recurring crises has kept the risk of great-power war elevated and the trajectory of cross-Strait relations increasingly uncertain.

引用格式

Chen, I. T.-Y. (2025). The Taiwan Strait: the Flashpoint of War between China and US-Led Alliance. Journal of Chinese Political Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-025-09924-7
Chen, Ian Tsung-Yen. "The Taiwan Strait: The Flashpoint of War Between China and US-Led Alliance." Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2025, doi.org/10.1007/s11366-025-09924-7.
Chen, Ian Tsung-Yen. "The Taiwan Strait: The Flashpoint of War Between China and US-Led Alliance." Journal of Chinese Political Science (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-025-09924-7
Chen, Ian Tsung-Yen 2025, 'The Taiwan Strait: the Flashpoint of War between China and US-Led Alliance', Journal of Chinese Political Science, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-025-09924-7.
Chen, Ian Tsung-Yen. The Taiwan Strait: the Flashpoint of War between China and US-Led Alliance. Journal of Chinese Political Science. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-025-09924-7
@article{Chen2025TheTaiwanStraitthe,
  author = {Chen, Ian Tsung-Yen},
  title = {The Taiwan Strait: the Flashpoint of War between China and US-Led Alliance},
  year = {2025},
  journal = {Journal of Chinese Political Science},
  doi = {10.1007/s11366-025-09924-7},
  url = {https://www.doi.org/10.1007/s11366-025-09924-7}
}