Strategic Nationalism and Investment Risks: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand

字級

中文摘要

本研究透過建立「政治生存」的分析架構，探討民族主義與外國直接投資（FDI）流入之間的關係。本文指出，民族主義對FDI的影響並非固定不變，而是會受到國家領導人國內政治利益與維持政權需求的影響。具體而言，當經濟民族主義有助於領導人鞏固支持其掌權的核心政治聯盟、強化執政基礎時，政府更可能採取或落實相關政策；反之，如果民族主義所針對的國家或群體，能夠提供領導人維持政權所需的重要經濟或政治資源，領導人便可能基於政治現實，選擇淡化、緩和，甚至不回應國內的民族主義訴求。透過對印尼、馬來西亞與泰國反殖民、反華與反西方情緒的質性分析，本研究發現，當政府實際推行經濟民族主義政策時，往往會提高跨國企業面臨的政治風險，進而降低外國直接投資。不同案例中政府回應民族主義的方式之所以有所差異，反映出各國政治制度、領導人的執政基礎，以及對不同外部資源依賴程度的不同，而這些差異最終也會帶來不同的經濟結果。本研究因此進一步說明，若要理解民族主義如何影響東南亞國家的外國投資，除了關注民族主義本身，也必須考量領導人如何基於維持政權與政治生存的需要，決定是否將民族主義訴求轉化為實際的經濟政策，並藉此補充國際政治經濟學對民族主義經濟影響的理解。

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between nationalism and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) by introducing a political survival framework. This article suggests that the impact of nationalism on FDI is not uniform but is strategically mediated by the domestic political interests of national leaders. Specifically, economic nationalism is more likely to be enforced when it serves as a convenient tool for leaders to consolidate their winning coalitions and ensure political survival; conversely, when the target of nationalist sentiment provides essential resources necessary for maintaining power, leaders may rationally ignore or mitigate nationalist demands. Through a qualitative analysis of anti-colonial, anti-Chinese and anti-Western sentiments in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, the research demonstrates that the enforcement of economic nationalism can elevate political risks for multinational corporations, leading to a decline in FDI. The divergence in state responses across these cases illustrates how different political structures and resource dependencies shape varied economic outcomes. These findings contribute to the literature on international political economy by highlighting how the logic of political survival informs the economic consequences of nationalism in Southeast Asia.

引用格式

Hung, P.-C., & Chen, I. T.-y. (2026). Strategic Nationalism and Investment Risks: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Innovation in the Social Sciences, 4(2), 178-202. https://doi.org/10.1163/27730611-bja10048

Hung, Pu-Chao, and Ian Tsung-yen Chen. "Strategic Nationalism and Investment Risks: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand." Innovation in the Social Sciences, vol. 4, no. 2, 2026, pp. 178-202, doi.org/10.1163/27730611-bja10048.

Hung, Pu-Chao, and Ian Tsung-yen Chen. "Strategic Nationalism and Investment Risks: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand." Innovation in the Social Sciences 4, no. 2 (2026): 178-202. https://doi.org/10.1163/27730611-bja10048

Hung, Pu-Chao, and Ian Tsung-yen Chen 2026, 'Strategic Nationalism and Investment Risks: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand', Innovation in the Social Sciences, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 178-202, https://doi.org/10.1163/27730611-bja10048.

Hung, Pu-Chao, and Ian Tsung-yen Chen. Strategic Nationalism and Investment Risks: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Innovation in the Social Sciences. 2026;4(2):178-202. https://doi.org/10.1163/27730611-bja10048

@article{Hung2026StrategicNationali,
  author = {Hung, Pu-Chao and Ian Tsung-yen Chen},
  title = {Strategic Nationalism and Investment Risks: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand},
  year = {2026},
  journal = {Innovation in the Social Sciences},
  volume = {4},
  number = {2},
  pages = {178-202},
  doi = {10.1163/27730611-bja10048},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1163/27730611-bja10048}
}