← 回到研究成果

期刊論文

Cross-Border Threats, Reputational Costs and the Evolution of an Authoritarian Club: The Case of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

字級
外部連結

中文摘要

本文採用重複獵鹿賽局理論模型來解釋上海合作組織（SCO）的演化。研究顯示，國家與上合組織合作的程度，與合法鎮壓國內動盪的預期收益、執行反人權規範的物質與聲譽成本、三股勢力的延續，以及對其他成員偶發背叛的容忍程度呈正相關。上合組織因此面臨一項兩難。一方面，為了維持合作，它支持威權領導人鎮壓政治異議人士。另一方面，上合組織對人權抱持敵意的規範違反既有國際標準，因而提高了相互支持的潛在成本。中國在全球追捕維吾爾人、會員擴張，以及俄羅斯在區域內的侵略行動，都提高了潛在成本並損害上合組織內部的相互信任。這些因素可能逐漸削弱領導人支持上合組織的意願。

Abstract

This article adopted a repeated stag hunt game-theoretic model to explain the evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). It shows that the degree of state cooperation with the SCO relates positively to the expected benefits of legitimate suppression of domestic unrest, to the material and reputational costs of enforcing anti-human rights norms, to the continuation of the three evils and to the tolerance for other members' occasional betrayal. The SCO thus faces a dilemma. On the one hand, to sustain cooperation, it supports authoritarian leaders' suppression of political dissidents. On the other hand, the SCO's norms hostile towards human rights violate established international standards, thereby increasing the potential costs of mutual support. China's global hunt for Uyghurs, the extension of membership, and Russia's aggression in the region raise potential costs and harm the mutual trust within the SCO. These factors may gradually undermine leaders' willingness to support the SCO.

引用格式

Chen, I. T.-y. (2023). Cross-Border Threats, Reputational Costs and the Evolution of an Authoritarian Club: The Case of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 10(2), 223-248. https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970231173537
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. "Cross-Border Threats, Reputational Costs and the Evolution of an Authoritarian Club: The Case of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation." Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, vol. 10, no. 2, 2023, pp. 223-248, doi.org/10.1177/23477970231173537.
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. "Cross-Border Threats, Reputational Costs and the Evolution of an Authoritarian Club: The Case of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation." Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs 10, no. 2 (2023): 223-248. https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970231173537
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen 2023, 'Cross-Border Threats, Reputational Costs and the Evolution of an Authoritarian Club: The Case of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation', Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 223-248, https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970231173537.
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. Cross-Border Threats, Reputational Costs and the Evolution of an Authoritarian Club: The Case of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. 2023;10(2):223-248. https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970231173537
@article{Chen2023CrossBorderThreats,
  author = {Chen, Ian Tsung-yen},
  title = {Cross-Border Threats, Reputational Costs and the Evolution of an Authoritarian Club: The Case of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation},
  year = {2023},
  journal = {Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs},
  volume = {10},
  number = {2},
  pages = {223-248},
  doi = {10.1177/23477970231173537},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/23477970231173537}
}