簡介：川普政府對中國政策呈現溫和，因強硬言辭缺乏事實支持，對抗可能損害美國經濟和連任機會。然而，南海地區政策較強硬，避免被視為膽小。總結，貿易戰、貨幣戰、東亞軍事對峙風險較低。（備註：身為作者，本人必須謙遜地承認，本篇分析並未成功預測後續美中關係的發展）
研究論文標題
Trump’s Actions Speak Louder than His Words: Reversal of Trump’s China Policy After Assuming the Presidency
川普的行動勝過言辭：就任總統後對中國政策的逆轉
作者
Ian Tsung-yen Chen（陳宗巖）
文章語言
英文
出版刊物
Prospect Journal（遠景基金會英文期刊）
卷期
2017年，第17期，頁碼25-58
文章連結
華藝線上圖書館
引用
Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. 2017. “Trump’s actions speak louder than his words: Reversal of Trump’s China policy after assuming the presidency.” Prospect Journal (17): 25-58.
英文摘要
This paper asks whether Donald Trump is likely to act tough on China as he signaled during his campaign for the U.S. presidency. According to evidence presented in this paper, I argue that the Trump administration has adopted a more moderate approach after assuming power for two reasons. First, Trump did not base his past harsh rhetoric on facts; therefore, there is no foundation to support a containment strategy against China. Second, antagonizing China in economic affairs may create unintended consequences for the U.S., which may harm the U.S. domestic economy and his odds of winning a second term. In the South China Sea, however, Trump will continue with a tougher stance, but refrain from further escalation because backing down on security issues will signify his cowardice, which will generate domestic audience costs. As a result, the likelihood of starting a trade war, currency war, or military showdown in East Asia under Trump is low.
中文摘要
本文探討川普是否會像他在競選美國總統期間所表明的那樣對中國採取強硬態度。根據本文提出的證據，川普在上台後採取了更加溫和的方法，原因有兩個。首先，川普過去的強硬言辭並未基於事實，因此沒有支持針對中國的遏制戰略的基礎。第二，在經濟事務上對中國採取對抗的態度可能會對美國產生意想不到的後果，這可能損害美國國內經濟和他連任的機會。然而，在南海地區，川普將繼續採取更強硬的態度，但會避免進一步升級，因為在安全問題上退讓將表明他的膽小，這將對國內產生不利影響。因此，在川普政府下，開始貿易戰、貨幣戰或在東亞地區發生軍事對峙的可能性很低。